Your favorite AL East rivalry just got intense again. Here’s exactly which team actually dominates right now—and why the answer might surprise die-hard fans.
Quick Snapshot: The Numbers That Matter
| Category | New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Final Record | 94-68 (2nd AL East) | 75-87 (5th AL East) |
| 2025 Playoffs | Lost in ALDS vs Blue Jays | Missed entirely |
| World Series Titles | 27 (Most in MLB) | 3 |
| 2026 Payroll (Estimated) | ~$260M+ (Top 3 in MLB) | ~$140M (Mid-tier) |
| Key 2025-26 Acquisitions | Ryan Weathers, re-signings | Pete Alonso, Shane Baz, Ryan Helsley, Taylor Ward |
| Manager Status | Aaron Boone (stable) | New regime after firing Brandon Hyde |
The One-Sentence Answer You Need
If you’re asking who’s better right now based on winning games and championship potential, the New York Yankees clearly hold the edge with a 19-game advantage in 2025, deeper pockets, and decades of proven success—but the Orioles’ aggressive offseason spending spree has everyone wondering if Baltimore’s about to flip the script.
Read more: Ryan Weathers Yankees Stats, Age, Wife, Salary, Height, Weight, Contract
Why the Yankees Still Own This Rivalry (For Now)
1. The 2025 Season Wasn’t Even Close
Let’s start with the most recent evidence. The Yankees finished 94-68 and made the playoffs for the eighth time in nine seasons. Meanwhile, the Orioles collapsed to 75-87 and finished dead last in the division. That’s a 19-game gap—the difference between competing for October baseball and planning early vacations.
Baltimore’s season was so rough that they fired beloved manager Brandon Hyde on May 17 after starting just 15-28. When a team that won 101 games in 2023 suddenly can’t get above .500 by mid-May, something’s broken.
2. Money Talks, Championships Listen
The Yankees’ payroll consistently ranks among baseball’s top three, hovering around $260 million or more. This isn’t just throwing money around—it’s strategic dominance. With this financial firepower, they can:
- Absorb bad contracts without destroying the roster
- Sign elite free agents that other teams can’t afford
- Keep homegrown stars from leaving
- Add pieces at the trade deadline when contenders need help
The Orioles, despite their recent spending increase to approximately $140 million for 2026, still operate in a different financial universe. That $60+ million gap means the Yankees have more margin for error, more depth, and more flexibility when things go wrong.
3. History Weighs Heavy
Twenty-seven World Series championships. Read that again. The Yankees have won more titles than any franchise in sports history. The Orioles have three rings—respectable, but not even close to the Bronx dynasty.
This history matters beyond bragging rights. It creates a winning culture, attracts top talent, and builds institutional knowledge about how to succeed when pressure mounts. When players choose between teams offering similar money, legacy often tips the scale toward pinstripes.
4. Proven Leadership vs. Complete Overhaul
Aaron Boone might frustrate fans sometimes, but he’s led the Yankees to the playoffs six times in seven full seasons. The roster knows the system, understands expectations, and has recent postseason experience.
Baltimore? They’re starting over with new leadership after their 2025 disaster. New voices can spark change, but they also bring uncertainty. Will the new approach work? Can they rebuild chemistry quickly? These questions don’t exist in the Bronx.
But Wait—The Orioles Might Be Building Something Special
1. This Offseason Was Absolutely Insane
While the Yankees mostly re-signed existing players, Baltimore went on a shopping spree that shocked baseball:
Pete Alonso (5 years, $155 million): A middle-of-the-order masher who hit 222 home runs for the Mets before age 30. This signing signals Baltimore wants to win NOW, not later.
Shane Baz (Trade): A young, electric right-hander with ace potential. The Orioles paid a steep prospect price, showing they’re willing to sacrifice the future for present-day wins.
Ryan Helsley (2 years, $28 million): One of baseball’s most dominant closers, converting saves at an elite rate. Bullpens win October games, and Baltimore just upgraded big time.
Taylor Ward (Trade for Grayson Rodriguez): Added right-handed power and outfield defense in exchange for a pitcher they could spare.
Zach Eflin (1 year, $10 million): Veteran rotation depth at a team-friendly price.
This isn’t tinkering. This is aggressive roster reconstruction designed to erase the memory of 2025’s nightmare season.
2. Young Core Still Intact
Gunnar Henderson just agreed to an $8.5 million contract for 2026—a bargain for a player many consider a future superstar. Adley Rutschman remains one of baseball’s best young catchers. Even after trading prospects, Baltimore’s farm system ranks among the sport’s best.
The Yankees’ core is older and more expensive. Aaron Judge is incredible but turning 34 this year. Giancarlo Stanton’s massive contract limits flexibility. The Orioles’ window might be just opening while New York’s could be narrowing.
3. Efficiency and Value Creation
Baltimore’s front office has proven it can develop talent and find undervalued players. Their player development system consistently churns out major league contributors. If their new acquisitions perform and their young players develop as expected, they could outperform their payroll significantly.
The Yankees, with their massive budget, need to win big or face disappointment. The Orioles have lower expectations and more upside, surprise potential.
4. Desperation Creates Motivation
Nothing motivates like embarrassment. The 2025 Orioles humiliated themselves after back-to-back 100-win seasons in 2023-2024. That kind of failure either destroys organizations or forges championship resolve.
Baltimore chose aggression over regression. They spent money, traded prospects, and sent a message: we’re not accepting mediocrity. Sometimes teams respond to rock-bottom moments by building something special.
The AL East Reality Check Nobody’s Talking About
Both teams face the same brutal truth: the American League East is absolutely stacked. The Blue Jays won 94 regular-season games and the American League pennant in 2025, but they lost the 2025 World Series to the Los Angeles Dodgers in seven games. The Red Sox won 89 games and are spending aggressively. Even the Rays, despite their budget constraints, remain competitive.
Winning the division requires excellence, not just competence. Wild card spots are never guaranteed. Both the Yankees and Orioles could win 90+ games and still miss October.
2026 Outlook: What Spring Training Will Tell Us
Yankees’ Remaining Questions:
- Will Cody Bellinger re-sign, or do they lose his production?
- Can Gerrit Cole return effectively from Tommy John surgery?
- Is the current roster good enough, or do they need another big move?
- How will Ryan Weathers perform after the trade acquisition?
Orioles’ Remaining Questions:
- Will they land another frontline starter (Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, or a trade target)?
- Can Pete Alonso replicate his power numbers in a new uniform?
- Will Shane Baz stay healthy and fulfill his ace potential?
- How quickly can the new-look roster develop chemistry?
Both teams have work to do before March 26, when the season officially begins.
Head-to-Head: Recent History
In 2025, the New York Yankees won the season series over the Orioles — New York went 9–4 against Baltimore during the regular season. Given the AL East context, every divisional matchup remains critical in 2026.
Divisional games matter enormously. Every Yankees-Orioles matchup in 2026 could swing wild-card races or division standings. Don’t sleep on these matchups just because one team struggled last year.
The Uncomfortable Truth About Predictions
Baseball is gloriously unpredictable. The 2025 Orioles proved that 101-win teams can crater. The Blue Jays showed that underdogs can win championships. Analytics help, but they don’t determine October outcomes.
The Yankees have better odds right now based on recent performance, financial resources, and organizational stability. But if Baltimore’s new pieces click, if their young stars take another leap, if their pitching holds together? This race gets fascinating quickly.
What Smart Money Says
Vegas oddsmakers and projection systems favor the Yankees for 2026:
- Higher projected win total (typically 88-92 wins)
- Better playoff odds (approximately 75-80% chance)
- Stronger championship futures betting odds
The Orioles project closer to 82-86 wins with roughly 50-60% playoff chances, depending on the model.
However, these numbers assume the Orioles don’t add another frontline starter. If they land Framber Valdez or trade for someone like Freddy Peralta, their projections jump significantly.
The Bottom Line for Right Now
Short-term winner (2026 specifically): Yankees by a nose. They have recent playoff success, roster stability, and proven ability to handle pressure. Their path to 90+ wins looks clearer.
Long-term winner (2026-2029 window): Potentially the Orioles. Their younger core, if developed properly, gives them a longer competitive window. The Yankees’ aging stars might decline faster than expected.
Most exciting team to watch: The Orioles. Their transformation from disaster to contender (maybe) makes for compelling drama. Will the massive spending pay off, or was 2025 a sign of deeper problems?
Five Questions Everyone’s Asking
Q: Who won the 2025 season between these teams?
The Yankees finished 94-68 and made the playoffs; the Orioles finished 75-87 and missed entirely. New York wins decisively, though Baltimore took the head-to-head season series 10-9.
Q: Which franchise has more championships?
The Yankees have 27 World Series titles (most in MLB history). The Orioles have 3 championships (1966, 1970, 1983).
Q: Does higher payroll guarantee better results?
Not always. The Yankees spend more but face higher expectations. The 2025 Orioles proved expensive rosters can still fail. However, payroll generally correlates with success over long periods. Money creates depth, absorbs mistakes, and allows aggressive improvement moves.
Q: Who’s favored to win more games in 2026?
Most projection systems favor the Yankees by 4-8 wins, projecting them around 88-92 wins versus Baltimore’s 82-86 wins. These projections could shift dramatically based on remaining offseason moves.
Q: Should Orioles fans be excited or worried about 2026?
Cautiously excited. The aggressive offseason shows ownership’s commitment to winning. However, the 2025 collapse raised questions about organizational decision-making and player development. The new pieces need to mesh quickly, or another disappointing season could follow. The pressure’s enormous—but so is the potential.
Final Take: The Yankees are better today, but the Orioles just made this conversation way more interesting. Check back in October—that’s when we’ll know if Baltimore’s aggressive overhaul worked or if New York’s steady excellence proves superior once again.
The AL East arms race just accelerated, and baseball fans everywhere should be thrilled about what’s coming.
Vikas Tiwari, writer and editor focused on Yankees news, rumors, trade updates, and game coverage, emphasizing accuracy, sourcing, and clarity.