Gerrit Cole Injury Timeline 2026 & Injury Update

Yankees fans are waking up to a harsh reality: their ace won’t be ready when baseball season kicks off in just six weeks. Here’s everything you need to know about Gerrit Cole’s comeback timeline and why the Yankees are walking on eggshells with their franchise pitcher.

The situation is simple but brutal. Gerrit Cole underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2025, and despite the addition of an internal brace that was supposed to speed things up, the Yankees are now preparing for him to miss Opening Day and potentially the entire first two months of the 2026 season. General Manager Brian Cashman’s recent update to reporters was carefully optimistic: “So far, so good. Gerrit will be joining us sooner or later in Tampa.” But behind that corporate-speak lies a more complicated truth.

What Actually Happened?

Cole felt elbow inflammation during spring training in 2024. He pushed through it, made just 17 starts that year, then tried to gut it out again in spring 2025. His elbow finally gave out completely. By March 2025, doctors were telling him what he already knew deep down—he needed reconstructive surgery.

The Yankees went with Tommy John surgery plus an internal brace, a newer technique designed to protect the repair and potentially shave a few months off the typical 14-18 month recovery window. Cole and the medical team initially targeted May 2026. Now, with Opening Day approaching on March 25th, the whispers around the organization point to early June as the more realistic target.

Read more: Paul Goldschmidt Yankees Stats, Age, Wife, Salary, Height, Weight, Contract

The Current Timeline

Right now, Cole is in Tampa working through his rehab protocol six days a week. He’s throwing bullpen sessions, building up arm strength, and by all accounts feeling good. Manager Aaron Boone said last week that Cole might face live hitters during spring training, but even that’s not guaranteed. The Yankees are being extremely careful with their $324 million investment.

That June 1st date isn’t set in stone. It could slide earlier if everything goes perfectly. It could slide later if the Yankees see any reason for caution. And given Cole’s age (35), his mileage (over 1,900 career innings), and the fact that his fastball velocity was already declining before the injury, nobody’s rushing anything.

March 2024 — first public warning signs / diagnostic workup

• Cole experienced right-elbow inflammation in spring training 2024 and underwent early testing/consults; the team treated him conservatively, and he missed time that season.

2024 season — limited workload / 17 starts

• Cole’s 2024 season was shortened; he logged 17 starts (95 IP) as he battled arm issues that year.

Early March 2025 — symptoms flare during spring training; diagnostic tests

• After a March 6 spring outing in which he felt post-outing soreness, Cole underwent diagnostic tests in early March 2025 (MRIs/consults) to evaluate the UCL. Reports of further testing were published March 7–10.

March 10–11, 2025 — decision for surgery/procedure performed

• Cole elected to have reconstructive UCL surgery (Tommy John) in mid-March 2025 (reports show surgery on March 11, 2025) performed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache; recovery was projected to be season-ending.

Surgery details — internal-brace augmentation included

• Multiple reports stated the operation included an internal brace (suture-augmentation) along with the UCL reconstruction — a technique intended to protect the repair and potentially improve early stability. (This is different from a simple repair-only procedure; Cole’s surgery was a full reconstruction with internal-brace augmentation.)

Immediate post-op (March → May 2025) — standard early rehab

• Typical immediate milestones after UCL reconstruction/internal brace: brief immobilization/brace; early ROM and progressive PT weeks 1–8; gradual strengthening months 2–4. (These are standard protocol steps and reflect what the Yankees’ medical staff reported they were following with Cole.)

Summer 2025 — throwing-program start (flat-ground, long toss progression)

• August 11, 2025: Cole officially began an on-field throwing program (flat-ground tosses), a major rehab milestone and the first measurable progression toward game work. The club noted he was building toward a ~14-month target timeline.

Fall / Winter 2025 — strength, bullpen work, gradual ramp

• Through late 2025, the Yankees reported steady progress; internal targets discussed by team sources were about ~14 months (which points to mid-May 2026) while many beat writers and analysts emphasized that a practical window could be late-May → early-June depending on how the bullpen and live-hitter work go.

Jan–Feb 2026 — Spring training ramp / Tampa workouts

• As of Feb 2026, Cole was doing team rehab work (strength, bullpen sessions, long toss) in Tampa and continuing through the Yankees’ rehab protocol. Manager/beat coverage indicated that live-hitter sessions and simulated games were possible but not guaranteed until those earlier steps come clean. The working window being discussed by the club and writers is mid-May → early-June, with a practical “earliest realistic” MLB activation often cited in late-May / early-June.

Key team/injury context (affects rotation & timeline pressure)

• Clarke Schmidt — underwent UCL/Tommy John surgery in July 2025 and is expected to be out into 2026, moving any potential return to the second half at best.
• Carlos Rodón — had an elbow procedure (loose bodies/bone-spur work) in Oct 2025; club updates through January 2026 put his return in the late-April → May window. These parallel injuries increase the Yankees’ reliance on depth while Cole rehabs.

Opening Day 2026 (calendar anchor)

• The 2026 season officially opens on March 25, 2026 (Yankees are part of Opening Night). Cole’s recovery timeline means he will miss Opening Day even under the most optimistic scenarios.

Has Cole Ever Had Tommy John Before?

No. This is his first major reconstructive elbow surgery. That’s both good news and bad news. Good because it means his elbow hasn’t been through this trauma before. Bad because recovery from Tommy John at 35 is a completely different beast than recovery at 25.

The Contract Situation

Cole signed a nine-year, $324 million deal with the Yankees back in December 2019. He’s locked in through 2028, which means the Yankees aren’t just protecting a pitcher—they’re protecting their entire financial structure for the next three seasons. If Cole comes back and isn’t the same dominant force he was in 2023 (when he won the AL Cy Young Award), that contract becomes a massive albatross.

What This Means for the Yankees

The Yankees have to navigate at least two months without their ace. Carlos Rodon had elbow surgery, too, and won’t be ready until late April or May. Clarke Schmidt? He had Tommy John in July and might not pitch at all in 2026. That leaves Max Fried as the only proven frontline starter on Opening Day.

Behind Fried, the Yankees are counting on young arms like Cam Schlittler and Luis Gil to carry way more weight than anyone originally planned. These guys had career-high workloads in 2025, and now they’re being asked to do it again while the veterans heal.

The AL East won’t wait — the Blue Jays were the American League champions last year, but the Los Angeles Dodgers won the 2025 World Series in seven games. The Orioles are stacked. The Red Sox are improving. Every game the Yankees lose in April and May without Cole makes their path to October that much steeper.

The Justin Verlander Comparison

Yankees fans are clinging to one hope: Justin Verlander. He had Tommy John at 37, sat out 2021, then came back and won the Cy Young in 2022. It’s possible. But for every Verlander success story, there are dozens of pitchers who never recaptured their pre-surgery dominance.

Cole’s velocity was already slipping before the injury—his fastball dipped below 96 mph in 2024 for the first time in seven years. His strikeout rate declined for four straight seasons. Will the extended rest help him regain lost velocity? Or will the natural aging process, combined with the surgical recovery, push him further down the curve?

What to Watch

The next six weeks will tell us a lot. Pay attention to:

Spring training reports: How does Cole look when he increases intensity? What’s his velocity like? How’s his command?

Medical clearances: Any setbacks or delays will leak out through beat reporters

Early rotation performance: If the Yankees struggle badly without Cole in April and May, the pressure to rush him back will intensify

Cole’s own body language: Watch his interviews. If he starts hedging or sounds less confident, that’s a red flag

Bottom Line

Gerrit Cole will miss Opening Day and probably the entire first two months of 2026. The Yankees are managing his comeback conservatively, which is a smart long-term strategy but a painful short-term reality. Cashman and Boone keep saying all the right things about “no setbacks” and “progressing well,” but the truth is nobody knows how Cole will look until he faces major league hitters in games that matter.

June is the working timeline. Everything else is hope and prayer. For a franchise that hasn’t won a championship since 2009, that’s a tough pill to swallow. But it’s better than the alternative—rushing him back too soon and losing him for good.

The Yankees’ season doesn’t start until Cole comes back. The question is whether they’ll still be in the race when he does.